CNN's early take on the electoral map

[ScottW]

https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156

So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

ScottW

[mINE109]

Post by ScottW
https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156
So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.

From twitter (Dec 24):

11 polls w/Biden lead now (via 538):
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
47-46 Quinnipiac
48-47 Echelon
42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
39-37 YouGov
40-36 and 37-35 Leger
Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

[ScottW]

Post by mINE109

Post by ScottW
https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156
So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
47-46 Quinnipiac
48-47 Echelon
42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
39-37 YouGov
40-36 and 37-35 Leger
Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

Is there a difference between a national poll and an electoral prediction?

Since I see you need help, think of it like black vs white key.

ScottW

[mINE109]

Post by ScottW

Post by mINE109

Post by ScottW
https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156
So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
47-46 Quinnipiac
48-47 Echelon
42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
39-37 YouGov
40-36 and 37-35 Leger
Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

Is there a difference between a national poll and an electoral prediction?

The CNN is not a prediction so that's beside the point.

Post by ScottW
Since I see you need help, think of it like black vs white key.

The inapt comparison is yours since you brought up a black key to
contradict my white.

[Art Sackman]

Post by mINE109

Post by ScottW
https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156
So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
47-46 Quinnipiac
48-47 Echelon
42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
39-37 YouGov
40-36 and 37-35 Leger
Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden


The thirteen most recent polls:

Trump 8
Biden 3 NYT< Quinnipiac, PBS/NPR, all ultra liberal viewpoints
Tie 2

[ScottW]

Post by Art Sackman

Post by mINE109

Post by ScottW
https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156
So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
47-46 Quinnipiac
48-47 Echelon
42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
39-37 YouGov
40-36 and 37-35 Leger
Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Trump 8
Biden 3 NYT< Quinnipiac, PBS/NPR, all ultra liberal viewpoints
Tie 2

Stephen will be furiously scouring the 'net for a patch to his bubble.

ScottW

[mINE109]

Post by Art Sackman

Post by mINE109

Post by ScottW
https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156
So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
47-46 Quinnipiac
48-47 Echelon
42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
39-37 YouGov
40-36 and 37-35 Leger
Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Trump 8
Biden 3 NYT< Quinnipiac, PBS/NPR, all ultra liberal viewpoints
Tie 2

Congratulations! You are arguing by counter-example. Well done!

However, polls aren't wins like in sports. Looking at 538, after
eliminating the obvious outliers you end up with just a point or two
difference either way.

And, of course, there are no "ultra liberal viewpoint" polls. NYT? The
headline editors are clearly in the bag for Trump. NPR? "Nice polite
Republicans" with a business and institutional bias.